MY (IN DEPTH) ANALYSIS OF THE 2022 GOPHS

There is one “match” left in the Spring season, but that’s in Indianola, IA. I won’t be there and neither will the Strib, so it will be like a tree falling in the forest. (If any reader does get down to Indianola, please report back.) But I saw enough during these first 3 scrimmages to have some opinions. I firmly believe that (baring injuries or illnesses or late transfers), the 2022 Gophers will be a powerhouse, a talented team with the size, experience and depth to compete for the BigTen and even the National Championships. Here are my thoughts about the roster, who plays and where, and who watches from the bench:

The Gophs will surely play a 5-1, meaning 5 hitters and one setter, plus a libero and likely a defensive specialist (a DS), so 8 players in any given set. The 2020 recruiting class (rated #1 in the country) of Landfair, Wenaas and Shaffmaster will fill certainly fill 3 of those spots. (Wenaas and Shaffmaster are listed as Juniors, and Landfair as a redshirt Soph, since she missed last season due to injury, but keep in mind that Wenaas and Shaffmaster potentially have 3 more years of eligibility, and Landfair 4 more, because the 2020 season, played in the Spring of ’21, doesn’t count!)

Taylor Landfair, a 6-5 Left-side hitter out of Plainfield, Ill, was the #1 2020 recruit in the country. And when she is on her game, it is easy to see why. Besides the height, she has a great vertical, and is capable of going over the top of blocks. She made first-string All Big Ten in her freshman year, and has National Player of the Year potential. Challenges: She’s a decent passer, but at 6-5, not a great digger. And she missed last season with an injury – which raises questions about her durability.

Jenna Wenaas, a 6-1 Left-side hitter out of Frisco Texas, was the #3 2020 recruit in the country. She doesn’t have the abnormal height that Landfair enjoys, but she is a powerful hitter. And she’s a libero–quality digger, an obvious 6-rotation player. Challenges: Other than she’s not 6-5, I honestly can’t think of any weaknesses.

Melani Shaffmaster, a 6-3 Setter (that’s not a typo, she’s a 6-3 setter) out of New Castle Ind, was approximately the #10 ,2020 recruit in the country. She has the unusual combination of the height and strength of a hitter – and the soft, sweet, hands of a top-level setter.. And this is Shaffmaster’s team. This will be her 3rd year running the team, and in addition to great setting, she needs to be the leader. My preference would be for Shaffmaster to take better advantage of her height by attacking the second touch with increased frequency – turning our 5-1 into a 6-1. It doesn’t have to work every time to keep the defense off-balance. Challenges: She’s not the quickest setter in the BigTen — and she’s not going to be. But Shaffmaster was better her sophomore year than she was her freshman year, and I expect her to be even better this year

And last but not least among the locked-in starters, CC McGraw, a 5-9, 5th year senior Libero out of Prior Lake. McGraw was good as a freshman and has gotten better every year. The coordination between the setter and the hitters is understood to be important, but the coordination between the setter and the libero is at least as important because the libero is the alternate setter, and the two have to be on the same page. McGraw played with a different setter each of her first 3 seasons; but now this will be her third straight season with Shaffmaster, and I expect greatness. Challenges: Like Landfair, there are questions about McGraw’s durability.

The fifth, almost certain, starter is Rachel Kilkelly, a 5-9, 4th year senior DS out of Shakopee. If Coach McCutcheon employs a DS, which he likely will, it will be Kilkelly. When it comes to receiving and digging, the drop-off from McGraw to Kilkelly is minimal. Challenges: It might just be experience and opportunity, but in the past, when Kilkelly has filled in as libero,  she has struggled in her role as the alternate setter.

The sixth most likely starter is Carter Booth, a 6-7, true freshman Middle from Denver (earlier from a Twin City suburb – I forget which one). Height is helpful if one has the athleticism to use it, and Booth does. True, I’ve only seen her play against inferior opponents, but I am convinced that Booth has the potential to be a major force in BigTen Volleyball. Challenges: Booth is not, at this stage of her career, much of a passer. But she won’t be receiving any serves, and her passing should get better with time.

The seventh most likely starter is Ellie Husemann, a 6-3, 4th year senior Middle out of Eagan. Husemann won a State Championship at Eagan, has been competitive throughout her Gopher career, has gotten better every year, emerged as a starting Middle mid-season last year, and was dominate against South Dakota and NDSU in the first two Spring Matches. Challenges: Good but not great, Husemann has not, in her first 3 seasons with the Gophs, been an every-set, season-long starter — instead having to compete with other Middles for playing time. And that will likely continue; Husemann will be pushed (see below).

And the eighth most likely starter is Lauren Crowl, a 6-4, redshirt freshman from Eagan. Crowl adds a lot to the Gopher lineup. Taller and stronger than Samedy, Crowl is the only player on the roster listed as an “Opposite.” The left-handed (always an advantage for an Opposite) Crowl was obviously recruited (3 or 4 years ago) to take over when Samedy’s eligibility expired following the 2020 season. But then the 2020 season got pushed into the Spring of 2021, and participation in it didn’t count, Samedy came back for a 5th year, repeating as BigTen Player of the Year – forcing Crowl to redshirt. But now she’s ready to be our starting Opposite. Challenges: So why do I rate Crowl as the eighth most likely starter? 1) Though Crowl potentially has the height and power to hit from the back-row (as Samedy routinely did), this big, strong athlete has not yet demonstrated the passing skills required to play back-row, so Kilkelly would be subbing for Crowl rather than Landfair; 2) Though Crowl was “crushing” the ball against South Dakota and NDSU, she wasn’t getting many kills; they don’t seem to keep stats for these Spring scrimmages, but I think Crowl’s hitting percentage might have been a negative number.

Thus far, I’ve given you 8 starters: two left-side hitters, a setter, a libero, a DS, and two middles. End of conversation? No way! The Gopher roster includes at least 3 other athletes who are simply too good to spend the season on the bench:

McKenna Wurcherer, a 6-1, pure freshman, left-side hitter from Brookfield Wis, is the #1 rated recruit in the class of 2022. Seeing her in these Spring scrimmages convinces me that she was not over-rated — and #1 rated recruits don’t ride the bench! Wurcherer looks a lot like another Wenaas, similar height, similar athleticism and, like Wenaas, she has all the tools, with no obvious weaknesses. Wenaas spent her freshman year playing DS, and occasionally subbing for Landfair or Rollins, but Wenaas was at least involved. (And she knew she was better than Rollins; and Rollins knew it too.)

But Wenaas and Landfair have, potentially, 3 and 4 years of eligibility left; Wurcherer is not going to ride the Gopher bench for 3 years. So how does Wurcherer crack an already loaded lineup? The most obvious choice would be an injury. Landfair missed the whole last season with an abdominal pull; my sense (I don’t have stats for this) is that athletes with a history of injuries are more likely to get re-injured (e.g., Buxton). No reason to think Wenaas gets injured – but she’s human. The other likely candidate would be McGraw, also with a history of health problems.  If McGraw goes down, Kilkelly becomes the Libero and Wurcherer likely becomes the DS. Landfair, Wenaas, McGraw and Kilkelly are all veterans, and we might see a temporary drop-off if one of these solid veterans is injured and replaced by Wurcherer. But not for long.

The other option would be if somebody struggles, unrelated to an injury. I can’t imagine Wenaas, McGraw or Kilkelly playing poorly while healthy, and Landfair’s up-side is over the moon, so I don’t see her getting benched for Wurcherer either. But there is an unproven freshman in my projected lineup. (Two, counting Booth, but Wurcherer will not be playing Middle.) I’m talking, of course, about Crowl. I could see Wurcherer playing ahead of even a healthy Crowl, if Crowl struggles. Wurcherer could become our Opposite, or, more likely, Coach McCutcheon could play 3 left-side hitters, with Landfair, Wenaas and Wurcherer sharing the right-side duties. (Similar to how he used Lohman and the Tapp sisters in 2016.) I’m not hoping for an injury, and I want Crowl to become a star; but one way or another, I expect to see Wurcherer playing important minutes in 2022.

Another newcomer with a chance to crack the lineup would be Arica Davis, a 5-11, sophomore, Middle, transfer. At 5-11, Davis seems too short for Middle, but in her freshman year at Ohio State, she led the Buckeyes, a Sweet-Sixteen team, in blocks. Davis is a talented athlete; I’m projecting Husemann and Booth as the starting Middles, but Davis didn’t ditch a staring role on a Sweet-Sixteen team to ride the bench for an Elite Eight team.

One more player I fell in love with during the recent Spring scrimmages, is Julia Hanson, a 6-1 Left-side, pure freshman from Prior Lake. Hanson comes in with a lower rating from the national recruiting geniuses than Landfair, Wenaas and Wurcherer (two #1s and a #3), but she was the 2021 Star Tribune Metro Player of the Year, and  the MVP of a National 17U team at a European tournament. As GOPHERVBALLROCKS reader E.F. would say, “She ain’t chopped liver.” I guess Hanson sits #4 on the current depth chart at left-side, and maybe #2 at Opposite(?), but Hanson is an excellent volleyball player, likely to find her way into the lineup at some point.

Elise McGhee, a 5-10, junior, Setter transferred in from Kansas  (McGhee was the Jayhawks starting setter as a freshman and at the beginning of her sophomore season, but finished last season as the back-up), will be our back-up Setter. We expect Shaffmaster to be on the floor for every point in every set in every match. But if and when Shaffmaster can’t play, for what ever reason, McGhee will become the most important player on the team.

Skylar Gray, a 5-10, sophomore, Libero/DS, from Maple Grove, is officially #3 on the depth chart behind McGraw and Kilkelly. And she might be in the lineup next year, when we certainly won’t have McGraw; or maybe Kilkelly either, And Gray has a nasty serve, which could help. But if McGraw or Kilkelly miss sets this year, Gray will have competition for playing time from Wurcherer and maybe Hanson.

Natalie Glenn, a 5-10, sophomore, Left-side from Southlake Texas, is a very talented athlete. But, in my analysis, she sits at #5 on the left-side depth chart. Glenn is left-handed, making Opposite a more natural position than left-side hitter, and prior to these recent scrimmages, I expected her to compete to be the Opposite. But there was no hint of this against South Dakota, NDSU or St. Thomas – so I guess that’s not going to happen. Last year, Glenn excited the fans with her high-risk/high-reward jump-serve, and I thought that if she could improve her ace-to-error ratio, that might be the key for her to contribute. But in the 3 scrimmages, playing 3rd string left-side, she never even attempted a power serve, so I guess that’s not going to happen either. Glenn is clearly a talented athlete, but I’m having a hard time imagining her future as a Gopher.

Anna Wolf, a 6-4, sophomore Middle from River Falls, seems to be #4 on the depth chart behind Booth, Husemann, and Davis, and I haven’t seen anything from her to suggest that will change. Wolf will get the opportunity to change this only if 2 of the 3 ahead of her are unable to perform at the same time.

GOPHS DOMINATE TOMMIES

The Gophers finished the in-state portion of their Spring season (they play Kansas State next week in Indianola, IA) with an unblemished record, 12 sets played and 12 sets won. St. Thomas, prepping for their 2nd season of D1 VBall, were clearly undermanned against a Gopher Team that I believe will be ranked in the Top Ten Nationally when the first poll comes out in August.

Blog Readers and Geezer Vballers J.B. & L.J. were with me at the Pav, as were granddaughters (and surely future VB stars) Peaches and Curly. The girls were particularly interested in the Gopher hairstyles, and the Geezers in the differences between Gopher & Geezer VBall. (#1 The Gophs move their feet; #2 The Gophs are “in-system” most of the time.)

Since last week’s match vs NDSU, I’ve been going back and forth a bit with Reader R.A. (who I don’t know), who was at the match in Lakeville. R.A. is a loyal reader who shares my passion for GopherVBall, and we mostly agree on the new squad,  We disagree on redshirt freshman Lauren Crowl (R.A. likes her better than I do) and true freshman McKenna Wucherer (R.A. likes her less than I do).

So my main interest tonight was Crowl and Wucherer, and the related question of who will play the Opposite position for next fall’s squad. I conceded in last week’s blog that Crowl is the clear favorite; she’s the only athlete on the roster listed as “Opposite,” and she was clearly recruited as Samedy’s replacement. And when the season starts for real in late August, Crowl may well be on the floor as the Opposite.

But the Gophers revealed another option against the Tommies. Crowl played Opposite for 1 & ½ sets, but for 2 & ½ sets, the Gophers played with a Setter, 2 Middles, 3 left-side hitters (Wenaas, Landfair and Wucherer) and no real Opposite. In each pass through the front line, each left-side would hit left-side twice, and right-side once. This could be brushed off as silliness in a scrimmage vs a weaker team – except for two things:

  1. I believe that Wenaas, Landfair, Wucherer, plus Husemann and Booth are our 5 strongest front-row players; and  
  2. It is similar to the system Coach McCutcheon employed before he had Samedy. The 2016 Gophers did not have a great Opposite, but they did have 3 strong Middles; Hannah & Paige Tapp & Molly Lohman, so McCutcheon used a Setter, 3 Middles, 2 left-side hitters and no real Opposite. And the 2016 Gophs went to the Final Four.

I’m not ready to say that the 2022 Gophers will run with Wenaas, Landfair, Wucherer and no real Opposite – but it could happen.

ANOTHER TAKE FROM LAKEVILLE

Reader R.A. was in the first row, in a perfect position behind Opposite Crowl to be impressed by the power of her hits.  He also had a good view of the blocking by Crowl, Husemann, Booth, and Shaffmaster. Booth reminded him of Pittman, pounding shots straight down, well inside 8 ft.  Hope to see more of that this season.

Hanson was impressive also.  Glenn’s hits were more nuanced than last year, not always going for power over accuracy.  Landfair was a bit tentative in her first shots, going for dinks, but quickly found terrific power. And Davis was solid, especially on defense.

NDSU was overmatched vs the Gophers first team, but so many Gopher hits were no-doubters that would have scored on anyone.  The Gophers also made solid saves when the Bisons had good hits, but Shaffmaster was still chasing around the court too often. This is a solid starting 7, with some decent backups.                             

REPORT FROM LAKEVILLE

I attended this afternoon’s scrimmage vs NDSU at Lakeville North. I didn’t recognize any GOPHERVBALLROCKS readers (other than Maureen), but it was crowded, almost sold out (an empty seat here and there). If you were there, share your thoughts with our readers.

The Gophers swept 4 sets, 25-6, 17-16, 25-13, & 25-21. Although the scores of the 2nd, 3rd & 4th sets were similar to last week sweep of South Dakota, the 1st set (25-17 last week), when both players were playing their starters, were radically different. The Bison were a lot less competitive than the Coyotes had been.

Certainly NDSU has a roster full of talented athletes, but they didn’t have the height to challenge the Gophs. I was there in time for the warm-ups; the Bison were pounding the ball down on the 28 ft line; the taller Gophers, especially Landfair, Wenaas, Booth and others, were were pounding the ball down on the 8 ft line.

I focused my attention on what I considered the two open questions: 1) Who will be this year’s two Middles? And 2) Who will be this year’s Opposite?

  • I think I know the answer to #1. At least based on what I saw this afternoon, senior Ellie Husemann and freshman Carter Booth will be our starting Middles. Both dominated the (admittedly shorter) Bison when they were on the floor. Husemann appears to have become better every year. Big, strong Carter Booth dominated the net more than any Gopher Middle in years. She also has a nasty serve, but serving implies playing back row, at least briefly, and I’m uncertain how much we will see her in the back row until her passing gets a lot better.

Sophomore Anna Wolfe started today’s 1st set and played okay; but nothing like Husemann and Booth. Sophomore Arcia Davis played the 2nd and 4th set and looked very good, but still not as dominant as Husemann and Booth. BTW, Davis is listed as 5-11, but when she stands next to the 6-3 Husemann or the 6-4 Wolfe, Davis seems only slightly shorter.

  • Lauren Crowl remains the favorite for Opposite. She’s tall (6-4), she’s left handed, she started today’s 1st set, and she’s the only “Opposite” listed on the roster. And she played okay. But 6-1 freshman Outside Hitter Julia Hanson played better, today, than Crowl. So in my mind, the jury is still out.

Miscellaneous Notes from today’s scrimmage:

  • “Kill” is common V-Ball slang for scoring on a spike, but Taylor Landfair almost-literally killed some unfortunate Bison back-row player, the crowd gasping and wondering if she would get up.
  • Natalie Glenn is a terrific athlete, and demonstrated strong digging skills again today. But given that only two left-side hitters can play in the same set, and given that Glenn is not one of our top 3 left-side hitters (and not obviously even better than Hanson) I don’t see her getting a lot of playing time at her preferred position.

UP NEXT: Thursday, 7:30, St. Thomas, at the Pav.

REPORT FROM BLUE EARTH

I was excited to learn of the Gopher’s “spring season.” I was less excited about driving 2 hours each way to watch them play South Dakota in Blue Earth. But every Saturday since Christmas we’ve had a grandkid playing volleyball, or basketball, or wrestling, or swimming, not to mention 3 weeks of “home school” during the teacher’s strike – and suddenly that’s all over, at least until baseball starts. And it wasn’t even snowing, so why not?

The match started at 2pm. doors supposed to  open at 1:30. When we arrived at 1:30, the parking lot was almost full. No line, they must have let ‘em in early. It was a standard, modern gym, with folding bleachers on either side. Only one set of bleachers was unfolded, and it was 90% full, a half-hour before the match. But we found good seats next to some locals (welcome, new blog-reader Tara). They eventually unfolded the other side, which was half-full by the time the match started.  BTW, the Gopher swept 4 sets, 25-17, 25-19, 25-12 & 25-22 from the Coyotes.

As we drove down to Blue Earth, I had lots of questions regarding our 2022 Gophers, many of which, but not all , were answered:

  • Do Spring Games count? NO, these are “scrimmages:” with an almost packed house and a electronic scoreboard, and neutral refs.. But, oddly enough, no line-judges, wearing practice jerseys (the “returning” Gophs had numbers; the “new” Gophs did not), and as noted, a 4th set though the Gophs had won the first 3. The good news, for Gophervolleyballrocks readers, is that the Gophs got to play their entire roster (I think).
  • Is Landfair really healthy? YES, based on what we saw at Blue Earth HS. Landfair looked incredible, crushing the ball from the front row, crushing the ball from the back row, at least once from the Middle position, blocking a bit, even passing pretty well. Can’t tell you how long that will last, but she looked like the old “shock and awe” Landfair, at least against the over-matched Coyotes.
  • Are the rest of our returning stars healthy? YES, Wenaas played like the Wenaas we know and love. not as “shock and awe” as Landfair, but every bit as effective. McGraw played like the McGraw we know and love, Shaffmaster played like the Shaffmaster we know and mostly love, and KIlkelly and Husemann played like KIlkelly and Husemann.
  • Are the incoming freshmen as good as their ratings suggest? YES, # 1 overall national recruit O.H. McKenna Wucherer looks like the # 1 overall national recruit. 6-7 Middle Carter Booth looks 6-7, and blocks like 6-7 (she didn’t play in the 1st set, more about that below) and hit okay. And O.H. Julia Hanson looked decent for a spring-freshman.
  • Are we going to get any help from the transfers? POSSIBLY, I’m not ready to write them off after one spring scrimmage, but setter McGhie and Middle Davis both struggled in their Gopher debuts. McGhie, who played the 2nd set and part of the 4th is probably quicker than McMenimen, but I don’t see her challenging Shaffmaster for a starting role. Davis also played the 2nd & 4th sets with mixed success.
  • Help from the bench? POSSIBLY, Redshirt freshman Libero Skylar Gary turns out to have a nasty serve. Sophomore O.H. Natalie Glenn kept her killer-but-often out-of-bounds serve under wraps, putting the ball in play on every serve but without much on it. And otherwise playing like the Freshman Glenn, digging great, but hitting with mixed success. Sophomore Opposite Anna Wolf played the 1st & 4th sets, with mixed success. And Redshirt freshman Opposite Lauren Crowl played the 1st & 4th sets, with mixed success.
  • Who will the 2022 Gopher Opposite? PROBABLY CROWL?. The only “Opposite” on the roster, Crowl is the obvious choice; she’s 6-4 and left-handed, an advantage for an Opposite. She rode the bench healthy last year, but she was presumably recruited specifically to replace Samedy – and then BigTen Player of the Year Samedy ended up playing a covid-bonus year – no wonder Crowl red-shirted.
  • What are the other options? WUCHERER. Left-side is her natural position and she’s amazing! If she plays regular left-side for the Gophers, she’s a lock for Freshman of the Year and probably First-String All Big Ten. But she played Opposite in the 3rd set – and struggled; she is definitely better on the left-side. But Landfair is back, as is Wenaas. And I’m telling you, Wucherer is too good to sit on the bench. I think Hanson played Opposite the 2nd set (did I mention the newcomers didn’t have numbers?) with mixed success. And Hanson served well. I keep thinking Glenn, a left-handed O.H. capable of crushing the ball, for Opposite. But if Coach McCutcheon was ever going to play her at Opposite, these spring scrimmages would be the time to try it, and he didn’t today.
  • And who will the 2022 Gopher Middles? PROBABLY HUSEMANN AND BOOTH. Husemann and Wolf started the match, probably out of respect for their seniority. But Booth stood out as our best Middle today. And Husemann beat out Rubright last year. Like our starting opposite, it may take a while to figure this out.
  • And finally, are the Gophers loaded? ABSOLUTELY!