Month: September 2022

Reader R.A. agrees with CB’s comment: “I sit close enough to the court to see facial expressions.  During the loss to Pepperdine, players laughed when they made mistakes. I would prefer grimaces, followed by an effort to do better the next time.” 

JOHN: I don’t know how much I want to read into facial expressions, but if this team wants to win Championships, something has to change. This might be where they miss Seliger-Swenson and Samedy, even more than their physical skills.

C.B. writes: “I don’t know that much about volleyball, but I do know sports. And my impression is that the main problem with this team is effort.  I think that you were saying that in your anecdote about the 16 and U team that you were coaching years ago.

Against Purdue, the Gophers lost big in the first set. Then, while seeming to try harder, they were very close in the second set .  In the third, finally desperate, they pushed the score well past 25. 

Against Wisconsin, they seemed to bring intensity from the beginning.  But after wining 2 sets, they had a bit of a let down (or maybe WIS turned it up). Then, near the end of the third set, the Gophers became desperate, not wanting to go to a 4^th set.

And against Northwestern, they started with big leads in at least the 1st three sets, only to let them get away.

To win at this level, where every team has good players, the Gophers need to develop a killer instinct, and to overcome the lure of over-confidence against lower-rated competition.”

JOHN: I saw some of what C.B. writes about at the end of the 5th set vs NW. At 13-13, there was a point where the Gophers made miraculous save after miraculous save. They ended up losing that point, and soon the match, but I can’t help but think that if the Gophs had played the whole match with that intensity, the result would have been different.

C.B. was one of the top competitors I’ve ever seen – in any sport. Never dirty, but incredibly intense — even in practice. I remember chatting with him after a game, years ago, when he explained what made him so tough. “Well obviously, the goal is to physically dominate the guy you are matched up against, whoever it might be. To convince him that I am not only physically stronger (which C.B. generally was), but that I want it more than he does (which C.B. always did). If you can establish that early, he might decide it isn’t that important who wins this game.”

I told you a month ago that this was a very good team, a Final Four Team, even. And I wasn’t the only one. We were rated #7 going into the Northwestern Match (despite a 6 & 4 record); the Stanford coach said we had the most powerful offense in the country: the Strib’s Patrick Reusse wrote that only a National Championship could be considered real success for this team. Were we all wrong? It certainly appears so. I would never have imagined that we would be 6 & 5 overall, 4 & 3 at the Pav, at this point.

I don’t want to disparage the Northwestern Volleyball Team, they played their hearts out and deserved to win. Their first win! They haven’t finished over .500 in years, and they are unlikely to be this year. They don’t have a line-up full of top recruits; they don’t have one of the most respected coaches in the country; the Gophers have an International Hall of Fame Coach and more top recruits than can fit on the court at the same time.

I have written about the fact that top freshman Wooker was injured to start the season — but Wooker’s healthy and playing well (16 kills last night). Earlier yesterday, I wrote about the fact that Wooker’s insertion into the line-up has bumped Wenaas to Opposite, where she had been ineffective — but last night was Wenaas’s break-out game at Opposite, with 12 kills and 7 blocks. I have written about the fact that freshman middle Booth was struggling — but last night she had 9 kills and 8 blocks. Did Landfair, Shaffmaster and McGraw stick up the court? Nope; they played reasonably well — overall the Gophs marginally dominated the net, out-hitting NW .216 to .167, and out-blocking them 15 to 12.5.

So how could we lose? Bad passing, at least in sets 1 & 4. Daughter and former H.S. star Phoebe went with me last night, and I had her tally “good,” “mediocre,” and “failed” serve-receives – using her standards/judgement. Phoebe’s scoring: Set1, which we lost 22-25, 7 failed receives; Set2, which we won 25-21, 2 failed receives; Set3, which we won 25-17, 1 failed receive; Set4, which we lost 20-25, 7 failed receives. The differences, at least for these 4, 25-pt sets, were dramatic. Serve-receive was not the problem in Set 5, where, from 13-13, the Wildcats had the Gophs out of system continually, 13-15. But we shouldn’t be playing a 5^th set against Northwestern!

Some other minor aggravations (not as serious as our poor passing):

• Though a senior, Husemann still can’t polish off an opponent’s overpass. Booth can, and Husemann had plenty of opportunities last night, with NW making desperate digs of balls hit by Wooker & Landfair. But Husemann can’t do it.
• We were terrible on back-row attacks. Back-row attacks are a nice change of pace from over-reliance on left-side attacks – if they work. I can’t remember Wenaas ever putting away a back-row attack (despite scores of attempts over the last 3 years, last night she whiffed on one). But Landfair can be effective (she had 4 back-row kills against Wash. St.), but lately she steps on the 10-ft line. She appeared to have 3 back-row kills last night, but 2 of the 3 were violations. (This could be the setter’s fault, but I don’t think so.)
• All 6 servers made a service error last night. I’m previously on record as okay with that if our aggressive serving is giving our opponent trouble – but Kilkelly was the only one doing that.
• Coach McCutcheon is calm and encouraging on the bench. Ordinarily, I like that; I hate the P.J. Fleck / Tom Thibodeaux style of coaching. But when you’re losing to a team with half as much talent, a little intensity might be appropriate. (Once, when a 16U team I was coaching was losing to a team I thought inferior, I called a time-out and threw a tantrum about the fact that every single girl on the opposing team was wearing matching hair ties, “Are you really going to lose to a team that wears matching hair ties?” I screamed. We did not.

Several Readers had something to say about last night’s debacle, but first let me leave you a a few positive thoughts:

• It’s a long season, and the goal is to peak in late November/early December. This team that got swept by Purdue and beaten by Northwestern looks nothing like a Championship Team. But the talent is there.
• Kilkelly and McGhie served about half of the serves which resulted in points, and I thought Kilkelly did a particularly good job of forcing NW out of system.
• Wooker aggressively attacks good sets, and she aggressively attacks bad sets. (maybe that will rub off on Landfair.)

READERS WEIGH IN:

• R.A. writes “Booth was great.  NW played badly, won in five.”
• S.M. writes “Critical mistakes at Critical moments.   Consistent energy.  NW was pumped all night.  Third set Gophers looked like they did against the Badgers then they relaxed and had their hats handed to them by the hungrier team.
• G. U. writes “From my seat on the couch, it looked like the Cats played a better game.  Just proves how strong the Big 14 is in VB.  Any given Sunday!”

NEXT UP: IOWA (We cannot lose to the worst team in the Big Ten.)

How does the #7 ranked team in the country, the team that just swept defending National Champions Wisconsin in 3 sets, lose to the Northwestern Wildcats? At the Pav no less? On a night when Landfair and Wooker and Wenaas and Booth and McGraw all played well?  I’ll try to make sense of it tomorrow – but it’s late and my heads hurts just thinking about it.

The Gophers played a brutal non-conference schedule, as preparation for the always brutal Big Ten. Some school, like Purdue who kicked our butt, and Wisconsin, whose butt we kicked, played light-weight schedules. But we weren’t the only Big Ten powerhouse who played a tough schedule.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are ranked #6 nationally, despite a 5 & 5 record, with many 1-loss and 2-loss teams not even ranked. HOW CAN THAT BE? Here’s how:

• The Buckeye losses were twice to #1 ranked Texas, to # 3 ranked Nebraska (at Nebraska in 5 sets, total score: Neb 108 – OSU 106), to #4 San Diego, and #10 Pittsburgh.
• And their wins include #2 Louisville, #11 Georgia Tech and #15 BYU.

The Buckeyes, who we play home-&-home, are going to be tough.

I wrote previously that Jenna Wenaas might be the Gophers best all-around volleyball player. She is the most clearly established “5-tool” player (i.e., serving, passing, setting, hitting & blocking). Others, like Shaffmaster, Landfair Wooker & Julie Hanson might be 5-tool players, but Wenaas demonstrates all 5 skills every match.

The highly rated Wenaas (#3 in the country) spent her freshman season with the Gophs either on the bench, behind Landfair and Rollins, or playing D.S. when Kilkelly was playing Libero – and I’m not sure she wasn’t better at D.S. than Kilkelly. Currently, she is a main-stay of the Gophers serve-receive – the one opponents avoid.

Replacing Rollins, Wenaas spent her sophomore season as a Left-side hitter. She started out in Landfair’s shadow, but when Landfair was injured, early in the season, Wenaas quickly became the Gophers premier Left-side hitter, and was named 2^nd Team All Big Ten. Wenaas started this season at a Left-side, and was, through the first 6 matches, just a kill or two behind Landfair in production per match.

Then, starting with the match vs Pepperdine, Wenaas moved to Opposite (i.e., Right-side Hitter), allowing the freshman, and now-healthy Wooker to take over as the Gophers #2 Left-side hitter. Wooker has been a huge success, just as productive as Wenaas had been, and only slightly less productive than Landfair.

But Wenaas has not been particularly productive at Opposite. She has been more productive than Hanson and Crowl, who played Opposite when Wooker was injured (Hanson did have one really strong match). But not nearly as effective as she had been at Left-side. And certainly not nearly as productive as the great Samedy had been. In fact, during these past 4 matches, Wenaas has been more productive from the Left-side, where she plays for one half-rotation (because it is too difficult to switch while receiving serve) than she has been for her 5 half-rotations at Opposite.

Daughter, and Reader (and former H.S.Star Left-side hitter) Phoebe feels this line-up shift is unfair to Wenaas. But we know that the Gophers are stronger with Landfair and Wooker at Left-side, and Wenaas at Right-side, than they had been with Wenaas at Left-side and Hanson and Crowl at Opposite. (At least for now, we can’t rule out Hanson and Crowl getting better.)

We don’t know how the Gophers would look with Wenaas at Left-side and Landfair or Wooker at Right-side. Nor do we know whose idea it was for Wenaas to move. Has she played Opposite in H.S. or club volleyball? Did she volunteer? Was it strictly a coaches’ decision? And how is  she feeling about it?

My guess? Wenaas is a classy team-first player who will dedicate herself to becoming a top-quality Opposite – even if it takes a while.

R.A, writes: Clearly, we are in for a thrill ride thru Big10 with outcomes as diverse as PUR and WIS.  I love your serve-receive breakdown.  I may try to record future matches on BIG to go back to tally.  Never thought to do that for home matches I attend.  After doing nothing right vs PUR, Gophs seemed to do it all right vs WIS (your serve-receive, notwithstanding).  I was most impressed how our serves consistently got WIS out of system.  Lotsa floaters and drop serves, not hard jump serves.  Serving flipped from NEG to POS.

I predicted weeks ago (but not 48 hours ago, when I was feeling much less confident) that the Gophs would whip Badger butt at the Pav, and they did 25-21, 25-16, 29-27. If you had told me 3 days ago that the Gophs would win 1 and lose 1 this weekend, Wisconsin at the Pav is definitely the win I would have preferred.

SET 1: The Gophs, who have not been a great first set team in recent memory, fell behind briefly mid-set at 13-16, but quickly tied it up, They traded points to 19-19, and then, behind Wooker, took control.  In SET 2: From 7-7, the Gophs dominated, taking leads of 12-7, 17-11, and 23-15 before closing it out.

SET 3: After ties at 4-4 & 11-11, the Badgers pulled ahead 13-16, & 15-20, and a 3-set sweep looked unlikely. Then, behind Landfair, Shaffmaster and Booth, the Gophs scrapped their way back to a 22-22 tie. The Gophs fought off 4 Badger set points before earning their first match point opportunity at 28-27. Landfair appeared to pound one down for match point, but the Badgers challenged, claiming  that they had a pancake hand under the ball. (This was a nothing-to-lose challenge.) They won the challenge, returning the score to 28-27. Then, during a wild, out-of-system challenge, Shaffmaster got the match-point kill.

I think it would be worth while to compare the Gophers performance in tonight’s sweep over the Badgers (total score 78-73), to Friday’s night sweep-loss to the Boilermakers (total score 71-82). Must have been a lot different, right? Actually, not so much.

SIMILARITIES:

• Tonight, the Gopher offense was almost entirely dependent on the left-side hitters. I had Landfair (16), Wooker (8) and Wenaas (4) with 28 of the Gophs 38 total kills, including 1 back-row kill by Landfair & 1 right-side kill each by Wenaas and Wooker, i.e., 74%. – vs 75% on Friday, both numbers higher than we want. (For comparison, the Badgers got 38% of their kills from the Left-side and major contributions from their Middles and back-row attacks.)
• And note that Wenaas once again got most (4 of 5) of her kills from the Left-side, despite the fact that she only plays Left-side for 1 half-rotation, vs 5 half-rotations on the Right-side. Booth added 1 slide-kill from the Right-side. The Gophers need to find some way to generate offense from the Right-side.
• We got a measly 5 kills from our Middles tonight, vs 4 on Friday.
• Wisconsin, like Purdue, dinked us to death. (That’s a personal observation; I don’t have stats to back it up.)
• We out-blocked the Badgers 11 to 5 (Husemann the leader here) despite the Badgers having more highly regarded Middles — but we actually out-blocked the Boilermakers 9-7 while getting swept on Friday.
• Wisconsin served aggressively, trying to force us out of system (as did Purdue), and we continued to struggle with our serve-receive, forcing Shaffmaster to bump-set at least half the time. (see below)

DIIFERENCES:

• We served better, i.e., more aggressively, without an increase in service errors. Tonight, I had us with 6 aces vs 5 service errors., whereas I had us with 1 ace vs 5 service errors against Purdue. I felt Kilkelly served better tonight.
• Wisconsin was less successful with their aggressive serving, hurting themselves with too many service errors (though Purdue made a lot too).
• Two of Friday night’s lost sets were 2-pointers; the Gophers just unable to come up with the big play when the set was on the line. Tonight, Landfair and Shaffmaster stepped up.
• I felt like Landfair was more willing to attack mediocre sets tonight than she has been. I hope that continues.

It might be that Purdue is a much better team than the Gophers, who are in turn much better than the Badgers. Or it might be that all 3 teams play better with a home crowd pumping them up. (My gut feeling is that our Gophers are better than the Badgers or the Boilermakers, but we’ll have to see as the season plays out.

Tonight I started keeping a new stat. All night, I tried to “score” the Gopher serve-receiving as “good,” i.e. easily accessible to Shaffmaster, “mediocre,” i.e, available for Shaffmaster to bump-set or McGraw to set, or “failed,” i.e., either shanked out of play, an overpass, or requiring a desperate save.

I tallied 17 “good” receives, 16 “mediocre” receives, and 6 “failed” receives. It’s hard to say what these stats means because I don’t have anything to compare them to; I haven’t seen anything like this published, for the Gophers or anyone else: they represent my entirely subjective opinions; even I have never tried to do this before; and I obviously missed a bunch, because Wisconsin served in-bounds more than 39 times. . But my gut feeling is that these are not good numbers. I feel that a championship team needs to earn “good” ratings on at least 50% of their receives, even against an aggressive serving team.

Lastly, a word about our two freshmen:

• McKenna Wucherer (The WOOKER) has now played a total of 4 college matches, and has looked every bit the #1 recruit in the country in each of them (9 kills and 4 blocks tonight). She’s a stud.
• Carter Booth has dominated 3 matches (out of 10), and looked like a freshman in the other 7. I like her a lot. I think she is going to be really good, The Gophers need her to be really good.

NEXT UP: Northwestern at the Pav, Wed, 8:00 (BTN?)

Purdue, now 10 & 1, is a good team. But not so good that they should sweep the Gophers in straight sets; we won one set at Texas! After the Gophers usual slow set 1, sets 2 & 3 were close, 18-25, 23-25, 30-32. Obviously there were opportunities to win sets 2 & 3, but the Gophers couldn’t get it done. And the problems that plagued the Gophers tonight were problems we’ve seen earlier.

Especially serve-receive, which was poor most of the night. Purdue had more service errors than the Gophs, because Purdue was serving aggressively all night, and we had a ton of playable, but just-barely, serve-receives. The first set, for example, was tied 11-11; Purdue won the next point, and then the Gophers made poor receives on the next 3 serves, leading to an 11-15 deficit from which the Gophs never recovered. Wucherer played back-row for the first time tonight, but it didn’t help; if anything, there was miscommunication between Wucherer and Wenaas. And meanwhile, our Gophs don’t have even one killer-server who can put opponents on their heels. Also (I don’t have a stat for this, but) it seemed to me that the Gophers were even-up, or even a bit better than Purdue, when in-system, and Purdue dominated the out-of-system points.

We were also out-dinked again. 5-1 teams are generally stronger when their setter is in the back-row, but Shaffmaster is a decent blocker (she had 2 in 3 sets tonight). We had more trouble when Wenaas (she also had 2 blocks) was blocking Right-side and Shaffmaster had responsibility for dinks. Purdue was constantly dinking over Wenaas. Shaffmaster had 2 or 3 beautiful digs, but there were a bunch she didn’t get.

And we were again over-reliant on our left-side hitters. I had Landfair with her usual 15 kills (in 3 sets), and Wucherer with 13. But Wenaas was named pre-season All Big Ten based on her performance last year as a Left-side hitter, and she started strong there while Wucherer was injured; yet so far (in 3 matches), she has not demonstrated the ability to produce from the Right-side.

We also didn’t get much from our Middles. Booth had the best night, with 3 kills and 3 blocks; Gros had opportunities but didn’t score; and Husemann made a couple of plays early then disappeared. Coach McCutcheon played 3 Middles tonight, in each set I think – which is hard to do. I would hope that I could understand what he was doing if the match had been at the Pav, but watching on TV, where they don’t show you the subbing, I got confused. Whatever the system, it left the Gophers vulnerable in set 3 when we ran out of subs and were forced to play Booth (likely the least capable back-row player of the 16 rostered players) back there.

So the Gophers are 5 & 4 and facing the Badgers at the Pav on Sunday. I actually think the Gophs will get their act together and beat the Sconies, but if they don’t, they’ll be a 5 & 5 team. Not an encouraging start for a team with championship ambitions! Then again, unbeaten and #9 ranked Penn State got swept by unranked Indiana tonight, so who knows?

— ON THE EVE OF THE BIG TEN SEASON

STRENGTHS:

• Outside hitting. An old friend of mine, and an accomplished VB coach, always says that “At the end of the day, a VB team is as good, no better, no worse, than their Left-side Hitters.”  The rationale behind this is that your Left-side Hitters get the most sets, and therefor are the workhorses of your offense. They also handle a lot of serve-receives. I haven’t seen every team in the country, but I am confident the Gophers have the best group of Outside Hitters in the country. So if my friend’s theory is correct, the 2020 Gophers should be a Final Four Team.
• Taylor Landfair, at 6-5 and the #1 recruit in the class of ’20, might be the most powerful Left-side Hitter in the country. Landfair has the height and elevation to go over double blocks, and the power to go through them. (Healthy so far this season (she often rides a stationary bike during time outs, suggesting she has some on-going health issues), Landfair has already demonstrated effectiveness from the right-side and the back row, and she’s the most proficient dinker on the team, making her a 4-way threat.

Hitting back-row means she is playing 6 rotations, and playing 6 rotations requires her involvement in service-receive. She wasn’t asked to play back-row or receive serves during her freshman season, and she didn’t play last year for health-related reasons, so this is the first time we’ve had the opportunity to see her service-receive. And as the #1 hitter on the team, she is an obvious target for opposing servers seeking to wear her down, and several teams have made a real effort to attack her with serves. (I certainly would if I was coaching against the Gophs.) So far she is holding up pretty well. She does lead the team in receiving errors (for the reasons mentioned above), but she is holding better than I would have anticipated. But McCutcheon does has options available, so Landfair might not continue to play as much back-row as she has been.

Landfair ‘s other weakness is that she needs, or thinks she needs, a perfect set; and seems tentative, too tentative for my taste, hitting a less-than-perfect set. (If she played in the Geezer-League I play in, she would never get a swing in.) One of the greatest things about the now-graduated Steph Samedy, is that she could score off a perfect set – but also off a mediocre set. I hope, that as her confidence grows, Landfair will become more like Samedy in this respect..

Although Landfair enrolled at MN in January of 2020, and will likely earn a degree before we know it, and is starting her 3^rd season as the Gopher’s #1 Left-side Hitter, she actually has 3 more seasons of collegiate eligibility! How is that possible? Her first season, pushed by covid to the Spring of ’21, didn’t count (not for Landfair or anyone else), and although she played a matches early last year, her health problems cost her most of the season, for which she has already been awarded a “red-shirt.” In the age of the “transfer portal,” there is no guarantee that Landfair or anyone else sticks around; but if she does, and if she stays healthy, she is likely to become an all-time Gopher Great.  I also would not be surprised to see her on the 2028 Olympic Team.

• Jenna Wenaas, the #3 recruit in the class of ’20, second-team All Big Ten in ‘21, and a pre-season pick for All Big Ten in ‘22, lacks Landfair’s height and elevation, but is a very good hitter, a decent blocker, and, in my opinion, challenges Libero McGraw as the best serve-receiver/digger/all-around passer, making her possibly the best all-around volleyball player on this team.

In her first season with the Gophers, in the 2020 season (played in the Spring of 2021) Wenaas served as a back-up to multiple positions, getting most of her playing time at D.S. when Kilkelly was promoted to Libero during McGraw’s health issues. And in her 2^nd season, in Landfair’s absence, she became the Gophers best Left-side Hitter. Now, with the departure of Steph Samedy and Landfair back, and just now, in the last two matches, with the recovered health of Freshman Wucherer, Wenaas has become our starting Opposite (Right-side Hitter).

This is an adjustment, and Wenaas is not yet getting a ton of kills from the Right-side (against Wash St., she had 4 kills from the Left-side vs only 3 from the Right-side, despite 3 times as many opportunities from the Right) – she’s not yet a Samedy-like Opposite. But she’s a strong blocker and her Right-side Hitting will improve the more she plays there.

At the start of this season, Wenaas debuted her jump-serve (the only one on the team so far). She didn’t much success with it and recently discontinued jump-serving. It will be interesting to see if Wenaas’s jump-serve returns.

• McKenna Wucherer (pronounced Wooker) was, like Landfair before her, the #1 recruit, nationally, in the class of ’22. I got to watch her play 3 exhibition matches last Spring (she dominated in one of them), but then, frustratingly for fans (and surely for McKenna) she was on the bench with a boot on her foot for this fall’s inter-squad scrimmage, and the first 6 matches of the season.

As a result, we haven’t really gotten to see enough of her work to fully appreciate what she can do. But it seems very likely, even from the small sample, that McKenna is going to be an impact player. She’s a freshman, and freshmen can struggle; Landfair did at the beginning of her freshman season, and we’ve already seen Booth struggle. But McKenna had 28 kills, at a .368 clip in her first 2 matches (vs Pepperdine & Wash St.). She may stumble along the way, but she’s certain to become a force as the season progresses.

(Interestingly, there are 2 other players on the team that look a lot like McKenna. One is her sister Miranda. The presence of two Wooker girls on the roster is why I generally refer to McKenna by her first name. Miranda is a grad-transfer Setter, who previously played for Northern Kentucky, where she was first-team All Horizen League and led the “The Norse” to their first ever D1 NCAA Tournament. At 5-9, Miranda is not likely to set in the 5-1 system the Gophers use, but she is a credible back-up at D.S. and, if needed, could set in a 6-2 system. The other look-alike is Jenna Wenaas. I’m not saying I can’t tell Jenna and McKenna apart, but they’re both 6-1, with similar body-types, blonde hair approximately the same length, they wear the numbers 2 & 3 respectively,  and have similar skill sets. I haven’t yet tried to watch them on BTN+, but it could be a challenge telling them apart there. )

• And the Gophers have great depth at Outside Hitter, even without the now graduated Airy Miyabe. Filling in while we waited for McKenna to get healthy, were true freshman Julia Hanson (the #1 recruit from the State of MN), and redshirt freshman Lauren Crowl, a natural Opposite. Both can play.

• Another strength is our 5^th-year senior Libero C.C. McGraw, taking advantage of her covid-bonus year. McGraw has had some health problems along the way, but she stepped into the role of starting Libero from her first match as a freshman and has gotten better each year, honored as first-team All Big Ten last year, and a pre-season All Big Ten pick this year. Of particular interest is that McGraw’s coordination with Setter Shaffmaster, in their 3^rd season playing together, has gotten stronger.

SOLID BUT NOT YET PROVEN STRENGTHS:

• Melani Shaffmaster. This will be Shaffmaster’s 3^rd season as THE Gopher Setter. She again has had no rivals, so love her or hate her, Shaffmaster is our Setter, Fortunately, she has gotten better each year, and this improvement should continue. An overall contributer, Shaffmaster leads the team in assists, of course, but also in service aces, ranks 2^nd behind McGraw in digs, 3^rd behind Husemann and Booth in blocks, and has racked-up .81 kills per set. These are impressive numbers!

But a Setter’s #1 role is to set. Shaffmaster might grow into being a good enough pure setter to carry this team a long way – but I don’t think she’s there yet. (Some night’s better than others.) I don’t know if she has gotten quicker, on a stop-watch, but with growing experience and confidence, she is “getting to” more 2^nd touches than she did during her 1^st 2 seasons.

At 6-3, Shaffmaster is at a disadvantage, compared to shorter Setters, at getting underneath a ball, and this forces her to bump-set a high percentage of her sets. She is really good at bump-setting. But bump-sets eliminate the opportunity for deception; the opposing defenses know exactly where the ball is going – and have time to set-up their best possible defense.

Shaffmaster racked up a lot of back-set assists her first two seasons – setting Steph Samedy. But Samedy graduated, and through 8 matches, Shaffmaster and her Right-side Hitters (or Middle-sliders) have struggled to establish much of a threat. Some of this is the hitters, they’re not Samedy – but some of it is Shaffmaster.  Shaffmaster would be a better Setter, of course, if she got better passes. It’s not her fault that she is forced to cover 500 to 600 sq ft of court. This is an important “needs improvement” area for Shaffmaster’s teammates. If they pass better, she’ll set better.

There is, however, one thing Shaffmaster can do. I mentioned that she has racked-up .81 kills per set through the non-conference season. I can’t find national stats on kills-by-setter, but .81 is a strong number. But I’d like to see it even higher. It won’t work every time, and her percentage of success isn’t likely to increase, but she could take more swings. The threat of her attacking gives opposing defenses another thing to worry about, which gives her hitters more opportunity.

MAYBE A WEAKNESS, HOPEFULLY A STRENGTH:

• Our Middles: Our Middles were disappointing last year. By the end of the season, Ellie Husemann emerged as our most reliably-adequate Middle, outplaying her more-highly recruited rival Rubright. Husemann returns for her senior year, and has again, in early play been our most consistent Middle – though far from dominant.

Katie Myers graduated and Shea Rubright transferred-out, so help at Middle will depend on Freshman Carter Booth, Sophomore transfer-in Arcia Davis, or Grad-Transfer-in Naya Gros. Davis, at 5-11, despite some success in her freshman year at Ohio State (she led the highly regarded Buckeyes in blocking) seems too short to be the answer. There must be some reason she’s on the Gopher roster as a Middle, but I can’t explain it.

Gros, at 6-3, led Michigan State in blocks in each of the last 4 seasons (18^th nationally last yr) and can definitely play. I would not be shocked to see her on the floor whenever Husemann or Booth struggle. But she has been inconsistent during the non-conference schedule, and I suspect she is our #3 Middle, at least for now.  

Booth, the #14rated recruit is exciting! At 6-7 and powerfully built, she has the potential to dominate, and has demonstrated already with 18 kills and 18 blocks in the Gophers first 3 matches in Texas, and recently added 12 kills against Washington St. So she might be exactly what this team needs; and she might well be the best Middle in Gopher history before her career is over.

But Booth is a true freshman, who struggled against Oregon and Stanford, eventually getting benched. She  was not productive on her “slide” attempts, nor synched with Shafmaster on her “quicks-hits.” An even larger problem was her inability to “close” the double block against outside hitters. Stanford, especially, exploited this weakness. Due to my temporary disability, I was sitting courtside, east-side, in the back-left corner. In sets 1 & 3, the Gophs defending my side, and Booth at Middle, Stanford set ball-after-ball to their left-side hitter, and their left-side hitter pounded ball-after-ball right at me – through the wide gap between our right-side blocker and Booth, who was consistently late getting there.

Booth’s size is a tremendous advantage, she can literally block without jumping. But she can’t block when she gets there late – and she’s not the quickest player on the floor. (To be fair, expecting a Middle to close the block on either post is one of the most demanding expectations in volleyball. I don’t know how much quicker Booth can get, but I am certain that, over-time, her anticipation (i.e., guessing where the set is going) will improve as she gets more comfortable with elite D1 V-ball. Let’s hope she learns fast; we already saw a tremendous improvement in her offense against Washington St. Booth is also a weak passer, but you expect that from a 6-7 Middle. Regan Pittman, a great passer at 6-5, was the exception to the rule.

ADEQUATE:

• Defensive Specialist (DS) has the lowest impact, of any position, on the outcome of a match. There might be an occasional match where especially strong or weak play by a D.S determines the outcome, but not often. Rachael Kilkelly fits this trend, she is rarely brilliant or horrible.

WEAKNESS:

• The glaring weakness of this team, at least through the non-conference schedule, seems to be Serve and Serve Receive. It’s great to have a big, strong front line with the potential to dominate the net, but that isn’t enough to beat good teams if you get out-served and out-received night after night. Oddly, the over-all stats do not support this assessment; the season totals to date show that the Gophs have served more aces than their collective opponents, and had fewer service-errors and fewer service-receive errors.

 But it doesn’t feel that way, at least in part because aces, service-errors and receiving errors don’t tell the whole story – probably not even half the story. A meaningful statistic would be, regardless of aces, service-errors and receiving errors, what percentage of a team, or individual’s serves (or receives) result in: a) a perfect, “in-system,” pass to the setter, b) a mediocre pass that the setter can barely reach to set, c) a pass that the setter cannot reach to set, or d) an overpass (i.e. over the net to the opponent).

I don’t have access to such stats, for team or individuals, and I’m not sure that Coach McCutcheon has them. But it certainly felt, in the losses to Stanford and Pepperdine, that Gopher serves yielded more of type “a” than type “b,” and Gopher receives were more type “b”  than type “a.”

The difference between “a” & “b” is more important than it might sound. When Shaffmaster has to run 10 or 15 ft to reach the set, she invariably bump-sets – to an Outside Hitter. It happens that Shaffmaster is very skilled at bump-setting to an Outside Hitter. The problem is that this gives everyone on the other side of the net a 3 second notice of where the set is going, and all 6 players are perfectly positioned to defend it.

Our brilliant hitters sometimes score kills despite the opponents positional advantage, but it’s a lot harder, often turning great hitters into mediocre hitters. Meanwhile, the Stanford and Pepperdine Setters were getting a steady diet of perfect passes, giving them multiple options – which is why our Middles, especially Booth, never arrived in time to “close the double block,” turning mediocre hitters into great hitters. My theory, is that for the Gophers to beat elite teams, they will need to both:

• Be aggressive on every serve – without making a ton of service errors. So far, Shaffmaster and McGraw are the only ones performing at this level); and
• Receive better. So far, I like the job that McGraw and Wenaas have done, I have not been happy with the job Kilkelly and Landfair.

Don’t get me wrong, Landfair is a very good passer –everything considered. But when the Gophers line up with a 3-person receive of Wenaas, McGraw, and Landfair, opponents will go, and have gone, after Landfair almost every time. I am curious to see how McKenna would perform if that line up was Wenaas, McGraw, and McKenna?

There is a silver lining in this analysis: Teams that are short are not going to get taller during the season, and teams that are physically weak are not going to get stronger. But serving and serve receiving are about technique, concentration, and determination – all of which are coachable.

OVERALL:

• Before the season started, I wrote here that this was going to be a very good team. I thought they would do better than 5 & 3 non-conference, even knowing that their non-conference schedule would be grueling, a schedule including teams currently rated 1,5, 12, 14, and 22.

I did not know that top-rated freshman McKenna Wucherer would miss the first 6 games with an injury, nor did I consider that highly-ranked freshman Booth would play, well, like a freshman. I still think the ’22 Gophers have the potential to compete for Big Ten and NCAA Titles. Apparently, I’m not the only one who thinks the Gophers are better than their 5 & 3 record suggests, because the latest coaches’ poll rates them # 8, despite their losses, at home, to teams with better records. I can’t say what the coaches polled are thinking, but I think these Gophers, with Wooker and Booth back on track, are going to be very good.

UNKNOWNS:

• The one thing you can’t predict, in volleyball, or sports generally  (well, except for Bryan Buxton) is injuries. Anytime you have to replace an injured starter with someone off the bench, you lose at least a little. But the Gophs are deep at Outside Hitter, with Hanson and Crowl both capable, and deep at Middle, with Gros and maybe Davis. Losing McGraw would hurt, and losing Shaffmaster for any length of time, would be devastating. The Gophs have 2 transfer Setters on the bench, Miranda Wucherer and Elise McGhie; but from the little I’ve seen, the drop-off at setter would be significant.

THE COMPETITION:

• As usual, the Big Ten is loaded, with 6 teams (including the Gophs at #8) ranked in the Top 11, and Michigan just outside the Top 25. There won’t be an easy week.
• Nebraska (who the Gophs don’t play until after Thanksgiving) is ranked #3, with their only loss to Stanford, and wins over ranked Pepperdine and Kentucky.
• Wisconsin (at the Pav this Sunday, and later in Madison) is ranked #6, with losses to Baylor and Florida (we beat both) and wins over ranked Kentucky and Marquette.
• Ohio State (at the Pav on Oct 12, and later in Columbus) is ranked #7, with losses to Texas (twice) San Diego and Pittsburgh and wins over ranked Louisville, BYU and Georgia Tech.
• Penn State (who the Gophs don’t play until just beforeThanksgiving) is ranked #9, and is unbeaten, with wins over ranked Oregon and Stanford.
• Purdue (who the Gophs play at West Lafayette tomorrow night, and later at the Pav) is ranked #11, their only loss to Louisville.
• Michigan (at Ann Arbor on Oct 7, and later at the Pav) is ranked #28, with their only loss to Duke.

PROGNOSTICATION:

I’m not brave (or foolish) enough to imagine one single season outcome, so here are multiple scenarios:

• Scenario #1: The Gophs stay healthy, Wooker and Booth are as good as I think they are, and don’t play like freshmen, and our serving and serve-receiving improves – Big Ten Championship (maybe a loss or 2) and a top 4 seed for the NCAAs.
• Scenario #2: The Gophs stay mostly healthy, Wooker and Booth are as good as I think they are, but are up and down, like freshmen, and our serving or serve-receiving improves –  In contention for the Big Ten Championship headed into the final weekend (a brutal weekend at Columbus on Friday/ at Lincoln on Saturday) and a top 8 seed for the NCAAs.
• Scenario #3: The Gophs experience multiple injuries, Wooker or Booth are as good as expected, but the other struggles to adjust to elite D1 volleyball, and our serving or serve-receiving is what it is –  A Top 4 finish in the Big Ten, and a top 16 seed for the NCAAs.
• Scenario #4: (The absolute worst scenario I can imagine). The Gophs lose 2 of the 3 of Shaffmaster, McGraw and Landfair, for a significant chunk of the season, both Wooker or Booth, while talented, struggle to adjust to elite D1 volleyball, and our serving or serve-receiving gets worse –  an NCAA invite, but not Top 16.