When the first poll of the season showed the Gophers at #7, bumping up to #5 after beating TCU & Baylor, I was skeptical – I didn’t think we were that good. Then after a string of losses, including a disastrous weekend out East, causing some GopherVBallRocks readers to predict that we wouldn’t even make the NCAAs, I was again skeptical – I didn’t think we were that bad.
My goal for the 2023 Gophs (everyone is of course entitled to their own goal), which hasn’t changed through the ups and downs of the season, was to make the Sweet Sixteen. First, we needed to win enough games to get invited: mission accomplished. Then we needed to get a decent draw: mission accomplished. The 3rd and final step is to win the first two matches.
In volleyball, only the top 32 teams are formally seeded.The Gophs are not considered one of the top 32 teams, so no formal seed. However, the Gophs first-round opponent is a Regional 6 seed, with a Regional 3 seed waiting, should we advance. So the Gophs are essentially a Regional 11 seed. With (I presume) the worst win/loss record of any team in the tournament, we can’t complain about being an 11 seed. And if the goal is to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, an 11 seed is a better position than being an 8 or 9 seed, because the winner of the 8/9 match’s next opponent is a Regional 1 seed. A 6 and then a 3 is an easier path to the Sweet Sixteen.
Utah State doesn’t scare me. They went 17-1 in the Mountain West, but the Mountain West is not the Big 10. Dominating Middles, like those of the Badgers, scare me. But the Aggies offense is led by 3 outside hitters, the most productive of whom is Shelby Capllonch. I have no doubt that Capllonch is a fine volleyball player, and it is certainly possible that she will lead the Aggies to victory over the Gophers. But Capllonch is 5-8. [The Aggies play a 6-2 system, meaning that they employ 2 setters, always setting from the back row, and two Opposites.]
If the Gophers survive Friday’s match with Utah State, we will very likely play Creighton on Saturday. Creighton won the Big East regular season with a 16 & 2 record, AND the Big East Tournament (so they finished strong). The Big East is not the Big 10 either, but it is regarded as stronger than the Mountain West. And Creighton beat the Gophers in the non-conference season, in 5 sets, 15-25, 25-16, 20-25, 25-22, and 15-9 – AT THE PAV. So Creighton will not be intimidated in their own, cozy, gym.
In that early-season match at the Pav, the Gophers played badly in Set 1, dominated Set 2, were out-played by Creighton in Set 3. Early in Set 4, with the score close, Shaffmaster, favoring her right knee all season, went down hard and didn’t get up. Eventually, she was helped off the court and led to the locker room. McGhie played the rest of Set 4, and played well. McGhie is no blocker, and I expected Creighton to exploit that, but they didn’t especially, and the Gophs took the set. Shaffmaster was back on the bench, favoring the knee, to start Set 5, but McGhie started, in the service position. Coach Cook subbed Shaffmaster back in when our setter-position rotated to the front row, but by then we were down 1-9, and did not recover. A match foreshadowing the Gophers lost weekend at Maryland & Rutgers, when Shaffmaster was ill. Wooker had a poor match also, and was eventually benched. And Palabyik wasn’t even eligible at the time.
I don’t want to take anything away from Creighton. They are a good team, likely better now than they were in early September. They’re strong in all aspects of the game, and their out-of-system play was especially impressive. But the Gophers are also better now than they were in early September, especially the last two weeks; I think our chances are around 50-50.
READERS RESPOND
Reader J.S. shared the following re my post on the loss to Nebraska:
No one ever comes back? I recall the Gophers against the Huskers in November of 2016, down 2 sets to 0, and 20-23 in the 3rd set. Gophers come from behind to win 28-26 and then win the next two sets to win the match with a 5th set at 17-15. May have been the most thrilling Gopher volleyball match ever. And for a while last night, it looked like it could happen again. For your viewing pleasure:
Reader J.S. shared the following re the road ahead:
Gophers: RPI 43 – #28 rank – 16-12
Utah St RPI 16 – Unranked – 24-5
Creighton RPI 12- #17 – 25-4
Winning both matches would make us Sweet 16. Our likely opponent would be:
Louisville RPI 4 – #7 – 23-4
Winning again would make us Elite 8. Our likely opponent would be:
Pittsburgh RPI 3 – #3 – 23-4 Beating Pitt would put us in Final 4.
We are the only “unseeded” among the five Big 10 teams. Penn State is a 5 Seed. Purdue, Wisconsin and Nebraska will all be hosting Rounds 1 and 2, Purdue as a 3 Seed., and of course, Wisconsin and Nebraska as 1 Seeds.

