ASSESSMENT OF OUR SQUAD –

— ON THE EVE OF THE BIG TEN SEASON

STRENGTHS:

Outside hitting. An old friend of mine, and an accomplished VB coach, always says that “At the end of the day, a VB team is as good, no better, no worse, than their Left-side Hitters.” The rationale behind this is that your Left-side Hitters get the most sets, and therefor are the workhorses of your offense. They also handle a lot of serve-receives. I haven’t seen every team in the country, but I am confident the Gophers have the best group of Outside Hitters in the country. So if my friend’s theory is correct, the 2020 Gophers should be a Final Four Team.
Taylor Landfair, at 6-5 and the #1 recruit in the class of ’20, might be the most powerful Left-side Hitter in the country. Landfair has the height and elevation to go over double blocks, and the power to go through them. (Healthy so far this season (she often rides a stationary bike during time outs, suggesting she has some on-going health issues), Landfair has already demonstrated effectiveness from the right-side and the back row, and she’s the most proficient dinker on the team, making her a 4-way threat.

Hitting back-row means she is playing 6 rotations, and playing 6 rotations requires her involvement in service-receive. She wasn’t asked to play back-row or receive serves during her freshman season, and she didn’t play last year for health-related reasons, so this is the first time we’ve had the opportunity to see her service-receive. And as the #1 hitter on the team, she is an obvious target for opposing servers seeking to wear her down, and several teams have made a real effort to attack her with serves. (I certainly would if I was coaching against the Gophs.) So far she is holding up pretty well. She does lead the team in receiving errors (for the reasons mentioned above), but she is holding better than I would have anticipated. But McCutcheon does has options available, so Landfair might not continue to play as much back-row as she has been.

Landfair ‘s other weakness is that she needs, or thinks she needs, a perfect set; and seems tentative, too tentative for my taste, hitting a less-than-perfect set. (If she played in the Geezer-League I play in, she would never get a swing in.) One of the greatest things about the now-graduated Steph Samedy, is that she could score off a perfect set – but also off a mediocre set. I hope, that as her confidence grows, Landfair will become more like Samedy in this respect..

Although Landfair enrolled at MN in January of 2020, and will likely earn a degree before we know it, and is starting her 3^rd season as the Gopher’s #1 Left-side Hitter, she actually has 3 more seasons of collegiate eligibility! How is that possible? Her first season, pushed by covid to the Spring of ’21, didn’t count (not for Landfair or anyone else), and although she played a matches early last year, her health problems cost her most of the season, for which she has already been awarded a “red-shirt.” In the age of the “transfer portal,” there is no guarantee that Landfair or anyone else sticks around; but if she does, and if she stays healthy, she is likely to become an all-time Gopher Great. I also would not be surprised to see her on the 2028 Olympic Team.

Jenna Wenaas, the #3 recruit in the class of ’20, second-team All Big Ten in ‘21, and a pre-season pick for All Big Ten in ‘22, lacks Landfair’s height and elevation, but is a very good hitter, a decent blocker, and, in my opinion, challenges Libero McGraw as the best serve-receiver/digger/all-around passer, making her possibly the best all-around volleyball player on this team.

In her first season with the Gophers, in the 2020 season (played in the Spring of 2021) Wenaas served as a back-up to multiple positions, getting most of her playing time at D.S. when Kilkelly was promoted to Libero during McGraw’s health issues. And in her 2^nd season, in Landfair’s absence, she became the Gophers best Left-side Hitter. Now, with the departure of Steph Samedy and Landfair back, and just now, in the last two matches, with the recovered health of Freshman Wucherer, Wenaas has become our starting Opposite (Right-side Hitter).

This is an adjustment, and Wenaas is not yet getting a ton of kills from the Right-side (against Wash St., she had 4 kills from the Left-side vs only 3 from the Right-side, despite 3 times as many opportunities from the Right) – she’s not yet a Samedy-like Opposite. But she’s a strong blocker and her Right-side Hitting will improve the more she plays there.

At the start of this season, Wenaas debuted her jump-serve (the only one on the team so far). She didn’t much success with it and recently discontinued jump-serving. It will be interesting to see if Wenaas’s jump-serve returns.

McKenna Wucherer (pronounced Wooker) was, like Landfair before her, the #1 recruit, nationally, in the class of ’22. I got to watch her play 3 exhibition matches last Spring (she dominated in one of them), but then, frustratingly for fans (and surely for McKenna) she was on the bench with a boot on her foot for this fall’s inter-squad scrimmage, and the first 6 matches of the season.

As a result, we haven’t really gotten to see enough of her work to fully appreciate what she can do. But it seems very likely, even from the small sample, that McKenna is going to be an impact player. She’s a freshman, and freshmen can struggle; Landfair did at the beginning of her freshman season, and we’ve already seen Booth struggle. But McKenna had 28 kills, at a .368 clip in her first 2 matches (vs Pepperdine & Wash St.). She may stumble along the way, but she’s certain to become a force as the season progresses.

(Interestingly, there are 2 other players on the team that look a lot like McKenna. One is her sister Miranda. The presence of two Wooker girls on the roster is why I generally refer to McKenna by her first name. Miranda is a grad-transfer Setter, who previously played for Northern Kentucky, where she was first-team All Horizen League and led the “The Norse” to their first ever D1 NCAA Tournament. At 5-9, Miranda is not likely to set in the 5-1 system the Gophers use, but she is a credible back-up at D.S. and, if needed, could set in a 6-2 system. The other look-alike is Jenna Wenaas. I’m not saying I can’t tell Jenna and McKenna apart, but they’re both 6-1, with similar body-types, blonde hair approximately the same length, they wear the numbers 2 & 3 respectively, and have similar skill sets. I haven’t yet tried to watch them on BTN+, but it could be a challenge telling them apart there. )

And the Gophers have great depth at Outside Hitter, even without the now graduated Airy Miyabe. Filling in while we waited for McKenna to get healthy, were true freshman Julia Hanson (the #1 recruit from the State of MN), and redshirt freshman Lauren Crowl, a natural Opposite. Both can play.

Another strength is our 5^th-year senior Libero C.C. McGraw, taking advantage of her covid-bonus year. McGraw has had some health problems along the way, but she stepped into the role of starting Libero from her first match as a freshman and has gotten better each year, honored as first-team All Big Ten last year, and a pre-season All Big Ten pick this year. Of particular interest is that McGraw’s coordination with Setter Shaffmaster, in their 3^rd season playing together, has gotten stronger.

SOLID BUT NOT YET PROVEN STRENGTHS:

Melani Shaffmaster. This will be Shaffmaster’s 3^rd season as THE Gopher Setter. She again has had no rivals, so love her or hate her, Shaffmaster is our Setter, Fortunately, she has gotten better each year, and this improvement should continue. An overall contributer, Shaffmaster leads the team in assists, of course, but also in service aces, ranks 2^nd behind McGraw in digs, 3^rd behind Husemann and Booth in blocks, and has racked-up .81 kills per set. These are impressive numbers!

But a Setter’s #1 role is to set. Shaffmaster might grow into being a good enough pure setter to carry this team a long way – but I don’t think she’s there yet. (Some night’s better than others.) I don’t know if she has gotten quicker, on a stop-watch, but with growing experience and confidence, she is “getting to” more 2^nd touches than she did during her 1^st 2 seasons.

At 6-3, Shaffmaster is at a disadvantage, compared to shorter Setters, at getting underneath a ball, and this forces her to bump-set a high percentage of her sets. She is really good at bump-setting. But bump-sets eliminate the opportunity for deception; the opposing defenses know exactly where the ball is going – and have time to set-up their best possible defense.

Shaffmaster racked up a lot of back-set assists her first two seasons – setting Steph Samedy. But Samedy graduated, and through 8 matches, Shaffmaster and her Right-side Hitters (or Middle-sliders) have struggled to establish much of a threat. Some of this is the hitters, they’re not Samedy – but some of it is Shaffmaster. Shaffmaster would be a better Setter, of course, if she got better passes. It’s not her fault that she is forced to cover 500 to 600 sq ft of court. This is an important “needs improvement” area for Shaffmaster’s teammates. If they pass better, she’ll set better.

There is, however, one thing Shaffmaster can do. I mentioned that she has racked-up .81 kills per set through the non-conference season. I can’t find national stats on kills-by-setter, but .81 is a strong number. But I’d like to see it even higher. It won’t work every time, and her percentage of success isn’t likely to increase, but she could take more swings. The threat of her attacking gives opposing defenses another thing to worry about, which gives her hitters more opportunity.

MAYBE A WEAKNESS, HOPEFULLY A STRENGTH:

Our Middles: Our Middles were disappointing last year. By the end of the season, Ellie Husemann emerged as our most reliably-adequate Middle, outplaying her more-highly recruited rival Rubright. Husemann returns for her senior year, and has again, in early play been our most consistent Middle – though far from dominant.

Katie Myers graduated and Shea Rubright transferred-out, so help at Middle will depend on Freshman Carter Booth, Sophomore transfer-in Arcia Davis, or Grad-Transfer-in Naya Gros. Davis, at 5-11, despite some success in her freshman year at Ohio State (she led the highly regarded Buckeyes in blocking) seems too short to be the answer. There must be some reason she’s on the Gopher roster as a Middle, but I can’t explain it.

Gros, at 6-3, led Michigan State in blocks in each of the last 4 seasons (18^th nationally last yr) and can definitely play. I would not be shocked to see her on the floor whenever Husemann or Booth struggle. But she has been inconsistent during the non-conference schedule, and I suspect she is our #3 Middle, at least for now.

Booth, the #14rated recruit is exciting! At 6-7 and powerfully built, she has the potential to dominate, and has demonstrated already with 18 kills and 18 blocks in the Gophers first 3 matches in Texas, and recently added 12 kills against Washington St. So she might be exactly what this team needs; and she might well be the best Middle in Gopher history before her career is over.

But Booth is a true freshman, who struggled against Oregon and Stanford, eventually getting benched. She was not productive on her “slide” attempts, nor synched with Shafmaster on her “quicks-hits.” An even larger problem was her inability to “close” the double block against outside hitters. Stanford, especially, exploited this weakness. Due to my temporary disability, I was sitting courtside, east-side, in the back-left corner. In sets 1 & 3, the Gophs defending my side, and Booth at Middle, Stanford set ball-after-ball to their left-side hitter, and their left-side hitter pounded ball-after-ball right at me – through the wide gap between our right-side blocker and Booth, who was consistently late getting there.

Booth’s size is a tremendous advantage, she can literally block without jumping. But she can’t block when she gets there late – and she’s not the quickest player on the floor. (To be fair, expecting a Middle to close the block on either post is one of the most demanding expectations in volleyball. I don’t know how much quicker Booth can get, but I am certain that, over-time, her anticipation (i.e., guessing where the set is going) will improve as she gets more comfortable with elite D1 V-ball. Let’s hope she learns fast; we already saw a tremendous improvement in her offense against Washington St. Booth is also a weak passer, but you expect that from a 6-7 Middle. Regan Pittman, a great passer at 6-5, was the exception to the rule.

ADEQUATE:

Defensive Specialist (DS) has the lowest impact, of any position, on the outcome of a match. There might be an occasional match where especially strong or weak play by a D.S determines the outcome, but not often. Rachael Kilkelly fits this trend, she is rarely brilliant or horrible.

WEAKNESS:

The glaring weakness of this team, at least through the non-conference schedule, seems to be Serve and Serve Receive. It’s great to have a big, strong front line with the potential to dominate the net, but that isn’t enough to beat good teams if you get out-served and out-received night after night. Oddly, the over-all stats do not support this assessment; the season totals to date show that the Gophs have served more aces than their collective opponents, and had fewer service-errors and fewer service-receive errors.

But it doesn’t feel that way, at least in part because aces, service-errors and receiving errors don’t tell the whole story – probably not even half the story. A meaningful statistic would be, regardless of aces, service-errors and receiving errors, what percentage of a team, or individual’s serves (or receives) result in: a) a perfect, “in-system,” pass to the setter, b) a mediocre pass that the setter can barely reach to set, c) a pass that the setter cannot reach to set, or d) an overpass (i.e. over the net to the opponent).

I don’t have access to such stats, for team or individuals, and I’m not sure that Coach McCutcheon has them. But it certainly felt, in the losses to Stanford and Pepperdine, that Gopher serves yielded more of type “a” than type “b,” and Gopher receives were more type “b” than type “a.”

The difference between “a” & “b” is more important than it might sound. When Shaffmaster has to run 10 or 15 ft to reach the set, she invariably bump-sets – to an Outside Hitter. It happens that Shaffmaster is very skilled at bump-setting to an Outside Hitter. The problem is that this gives everyone on the other side of the net a 3 second notice of where the set is going, and all 6 players are perfectly positioned to defend it.

Our brilliant hitters sometimes score kills despite the opponents positional advantage, but it’s a lot harder, often turning great hitters into mediocre hitters. Meanwhile, the Stanford and Pepperdine Setters were getting a steady diet of perfect passes, giving them multiple options – which is why our Middles, especially Booth, never arrived in time to “close the double block,” turning mediocre hitters into great hitters. My theory, is that for the Gophers to beat elite teams, they will need to both:

Be aggressive on every serve – without making a ton of service errors. So far, Shaffmaster and McGraw are the only ones performing at this level); and
Receive better. So far, I like the job that McGraw and Wenaas have done, I have not been happy with the job Kilkelly and Landfair.

Don’t get me wrong, Landfair is a very good passer –everything considered. But when the Gophers line up with a 3-person receive of Wenaas, McGraw, and Landfair, opponents will go, and have gone, after Landfair almost every time. I am curious to see how McKenna would perform if that line up was Wenaas, McGraw, and McKenna?

There is a silver lining in this analysis: Teams that are short are not going to get taller during the season, and teams that are physically weak are not going to get stronger. But serving and serve receiving are about technique, concentration, and determination – all of which are coachable.

OVERALL:

Before the season started, I wrote here that this was going to be a very good team. I thought they would do better than 5 & 3 non-conference, even knowing that their non-conference schedule would be grueling, a schedule including teams currently rated 1,5, 12, 14, and 22.

I did not know that top-rated freshman McKenna Wucherer would miss the first 6 games with an injury, nor did I consider that highly-ranked freshman Booth would play, well, like a freshman. I still think the ’22 Gophers have the potential to compete for Big Ten and NCAA Titles. Apparently, I’m not the only one who thinks the Gophers are better than their 5 & 3 record suggests, because the latest coaches’ poll rates them # 8, despite their losses, at home, to teams with better records. I can’t say what the coaches polled are thinking, but I think these Gophers, with Wooker and Booth back on track, are going to be very good.

UNKNOWNS:

The one thing you can’t predict, in volleyball, or sports generally (well, except for Bryan Buxton) is injuries. Anytime you have to replace an injured starter with someone off the bench, you lose at least a little. But the Gophs are deep at Outside Hitter, with Hanson and Crowl both capable, and deep at Middle, with Gros and maybe Davis. Losing McGraw would hurt, and losing Shaffmaster for any length of time, would be devastating. The Gophs have 2 transfer Setters on the bench, Miranda Wucherer and Elise McGhie; but from the little I’ve seen, the drop-off at setter would be significant.

THE COMPETITION:

As usual, the Big Ten is loaded, with 6 teams (including the Gophs at #8) ranked in the Top 11, and Michigan just outside the Top 25. There won’t be an easy week.
Nebraska (who the Gophs don’t play until after Thanksgiving) is ranked #3, with their only loss to Stanford, and wins over ranked Pepperdine and Kentucky.
Wisconsin (at the Pav this Sunday, and later in Madison) is ranked #6, with losses to Baylor and Florida (we beat both) and wins over ranked Kentucky and Marquette.
Ohio State (at the Pav on Oct 12, and later in Columbus) is ranked #7, with losses to Texas (twice) San Diego and Pittsburgh and wins over ranked Louisville, BYU and Georgia Tech.
Penn State (who the Gophs don’t play until just beforeThanksgiving) is ranked #9, and is unbeaten, with wins over ranked Oregon and Stanford.
Purdue (who the Gophs play at West Lafayette tomorrow night, and later at the Pav) is ranked #11, their only loss to Louisville.
Michigan (at Ann Arbor on Oct 7, and later at the Pav) is ranked #28, with their only loss to Duke.

PROGNOSTICATION:

I’m not brave (or foolish) enough to imagine one single season outcome, so here are multiple scenarios:

Scenario #1: The Gophs stay healthy, Wooker and Booth are as good as I think they are, and don’t play like freshmen, and our serving and serve-receiving improves – Big Ten Championship (maybe a loss or 2) and a top 4 seed for the NCAAs.
Scenario #2: The Gophs stay mostly healthy, Wooker and Booth are as good as I think they are, but are up and down, like freshmen, and our serving or serve-receiving improves – In contention for the Big Ten Championship headed into the final weekend (a brutal weekend at Columbus on Friday/ at Lincoln on Saturday) and a top 8 seed for the NCAAs.
Scenario #3: The Gophs experience multiple injuries, Wooker or Booth are as good as expected, but the other struggles to adjust to elite D1 volleyball, and our serving or serve-receiving is what it is – A Top 4 finish in the Big Ten, and a top 16 seed for the NCAAs.
Scenario #4: (The absolute worst scenario I can imagine). The Gophs lose 2 of the 3 of Shaffmaster, McGraw and Landfair, for a significant chunk of the season, both Wooker or Booth, while talented, struggle to adjust to elite D1 volleyball, and our serving or serve-receiving gets worse – an NCAA invite, but not Top 16.

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