Before the season started, I shared my expectation that the Gophers would be one of the best teams in the country, with a chance to compete for their first National Championship. And now they enter the NCAAs as the #3 overall seed. But we know a lot more about them now, so as we head into the playoffs, this seems a good time to reevaluate this Gopher Team. Coaches & recruiters generally evaluate players on 5 skills (serving, receiving/digging, setting, hitting and blocking) plus “intangibles.” Let’s use these same 6 categories plus a 7th, bench, for our evaluation.
- SERVING: I have previously blogged about the Gophers’ serving, so I won’t repeat that. I give them 4 stars (out of 5).
- RECEIVING/DIGGING: As is typical of high-level teams, the Gophs use a receiving formation that tries to force opponents to serve to our libero and D.S. (McGraw & Kilkelly, or when McGraw is out, Kilkelly & Wenaas), who between them cover about 80% of the court. And our opponents try to avoid our libero and D.S., aiming instead at our left-side hitters (Rollins & Landfair) along the outside edges of the court. (Our middles, setters and Samedy almost never touch a serve.)
Current Gopher stats show this contest of wills to be a virtual draw, McGraw, Kilkelly & Wenaas have handled 51% of our opponents serves, while Rollins & Landfair handled 49%. And their “success” is also similar, with “error rates” of 6% for Rollins, Kilkelly & Wenaas, 8% for McGraw, and 10% for the freshman Landfair. Which raises the question of why our opponents are so intent on aiming for the edges.
But I think that only balls shanked out of bounds or otherwise unplayable count as “errors;” it doesn’t measure the “quality” of the pass. I don’t hold myself to “quality” in Geezer volleyball, if I get the ball “up,” where at least one of my teammates could play the 2nd touch, I figure I’ve done my job. But the expectations for the Gophers are higher; Coach McCutcheon is not looking for a “playable” first pass, he’s looking for a “perfect” first pass, high in the air and exactly where the setter wants it. The Gophers don’t publish stats re quality passes, but my sense is that McGraw, Kilkelly & Wenaas’s service-receives tend to be of significantly higher quality than those by Rollins & Landfair, which is why they are targeted so often.
Overall, I give the Gophers 4 stars for their serve-receive.
Digging up spikes and dinks are the other half of this category. Again, the Gophers would prefer to have the digging done by our libero and D.S., but this is a lot harder to manage when the ball is live. Consequently, digging is spread out almost equally between Rollins, Shaffmaster, McGraw, Samedy and Kilkelly, who between them have handled 83% of the digging. McGraw and Kilkelly are very good, and Samedy’s no slouch. But most of Shaffmaster’s digs, and most of Landfair’s contribution, about 20% of the Gophers’ overall digging between the two, is covering dinks, and Shaffmaster and Landfair, both unusually tall freshmen, are not good at digging dinks. I do think they’ve improved as the season progresses, but if I were to rate Shaffmaster and Landfair on covering dinks, I’d give then 1 and ½ stars.
Overall, I give the Gophers 3 stars for their serve-receive/digging.
- SETTING: In a “5-1 system,” responsibility for setting falls almost entirely on one player, in this case freshman Melani Shaffmaster, who has accounted for 76% of the Gophers’ “assists.” (An “assist” is a set that the hitter converts into a “kill;” the Gophers don’t publish stats on sets not converted to kills.) Shaffmaster is a very talented and highly recruited player, who brings a high-upside and a unique skill-set to the position; she has shown improvement as the season progresses, and she would likely have performed even better if the Gophers’ first passes were better. She was also recognized as the setter on the Big Ten All-Freshman Team.
But for comparison, Samantha Seliger-Swenson, the Gopher setter from 2015 through 2018, accounted for 87% of Gopher assists during her 4 years as setter, including 86% her freshman year. I just watched a 2016 Gophers at Nebraska match on BTN. (As has been true for the past decade, the Gophers and Nebraska, then and now, were among the top teams in the country.) I’d swear the only assists of the match by anyone other than SSS were balls where SSS was the digger. (Admittedly, the team passing seemed better.)
Also for comparison, Badger setter Sidney Hilley (out of Champlain Park, MN) was one of 7 players unanimously chosen All Big Ten, while Shaffmaster was not one of 6 setters recognized as 1st or 2nd team All Big Ten. Early in the season, Shaffmaster really struggled to set her middle-hitters. Fortunately, Shaffmaster gets a lot of help setting, especially from veterans McGraw, Samedy and Pittman.
Overall, I give the Gophers 3 stars for their setting.
- HITTING: If you look at Big Ten statistics, there is a big gap between the top 6 teams (Wisc, Neb, Penn St, Ohio St, Purdue, MN) and the rest of the Big Ten. The Gophers rank 6th, with a hitting % of .248, way behind Hilley’s unbeaten Wisconsin’s .344, but not far behind Neb, who ranks 2nd at .272.
This suggests that our Gophers are mediocre hitters, at least by Big Ten standards. But statistics don’t always tell the whole story. First, the Gophs have played a much tougher schedule than the Badgers. And also, the Gophers have often struggled with their digging and setting, making their hitters look less wonderful than they really are. Steph Samedy was recently recognized as Big Ten Player of the Year (beating out the Badgers’ dominant middle-hitter Dana Rettke), and Pittman joined Samedy as one of 7 players unanimously chosen All Big Ten, freshman Landfair, who has really been coming on after a slow start (though I’d still like to see her be more aggressive), also made 1st team All Big Ten, and Rollins made 2nd team All Big Ten. I doubt that there is a better trio of outside hitters in the country than the Gophs’ Samedy, Rollins and Landfair.
Middle-hitters Pittman & Rubright are becoming more effective as they get better sets, and Shaffmaster, a 6ft, 3 in, setter, is a significant weapon with .9 kills/set. For comparison SSS never averaged more than .4 kills/set in any of her 4 seasons.
Overall, in consideration of the quality of sets they get, I give the Gophers 5 stars for their hitting.
- BLOCKING: The Gophers rank 12th in the country in blocks/set, but 5th among “power conference” teams, behind Louisville, Purdue, Texas and (surprisingly) 4 & 16 Maryland. But they rank ahead of top teams like Wisconsin, Nebraska, Penn St., Ohio St., Washington and Baylor, most of whom have played easier schedules! This suggests that the Gophers are a very strong blocking team.
Pittman leads the Gophers by a mile, with 88 blocks, but it isn’t just Pittman, Samedy has 47, Rubright has 43, Shaffmaster has 36, Rollins has 34, and Landfair has 33. Really a whole-team effort.
Overall, I give the Gophers 5 stars for their blocking.
- BENCH: Before the season started, reader D.S. noted that the Gophers’ bench is the strongest in recent history. And sure enough, all 14 players on the roster have played, and all in competitive situations, not just mop-up duty.
Freshman Jenna Wenaas, the #3 ranked recruit in the country, has played in more than half of the sets, occasionally at left-side hitter (presumably her preferred position), racking up 19 kills, but mostly at D.S., racking up 61 digs and 126 serve-receives.
Airi Miyabe has played in a third of the sets, at both outside and middle-hitter, racking up 12 kills, 9 blocks and 3 digs, and perhaps more importantly, providing a spark of energy when the Gophers needed it most. And Rubright earned her spot as the “other middle” (opposite Pittman) not by default but only after proving herself more effective than Katie Myers and Ellie Husemann, who also had opportunities to play.
And Bailey McMenimen and Hunter Atherton took over the setting when Shaffmaster couldn’t play (due to covid protocols) or was struggling (early in the season), between them racking up 42 assists and 13 digs. McMenimen and Atherton handled the setting in the Gophers’ single match vs Wisconsin. Given that it was a 4-set loss, one might conclude that our bench-setters didn’t perform very well; but we took a set from a Badger team that finished the season 45 & 3 in sets played
So I agree with D.S. that the bench is a strength of this Gopher Team. Then again, the Gophs finished the regular season 15 & 2, the first loss at Lincoln without Rollins, and the second loss to the Badgers without Shaffmaster or McGraw, so there is clearly some drop-off between the starters and the subs.
Overall, I give the Gopher Bench 4 stars.
- INTANGIBLES: There are few stats to help measure intangibles, but I love this team’s intangibles. Two points:
- Five of the Gophers’ 17 matches went 5 sets, and the Gophers won all five, and 13 of their sets were decided by 2 points, and the Gophers won 10 of those. To me, this is the mark of a team that has the confidence to make big plays when they need big plays.
- I like the balance of seniors (Samedy & Pittman) who provide leadership, juniors (Rollins and McGraw) and sophomores (Kilkelly) who are steady, reliable performers, and freshmen (Landfair and Shaffmaster) who are getting better week after week.
On intangibles, I give the Gophers 5 stars.
- SUMMARY:
- Serving – 4 stars;
- Receiving/digging – 3 stars;
- Setting – 3 stars;
- Hitting – 5 stars;
- Blocking – 5 stars;
- Bench – 4 stars;
- Intangibles – 5 stars.
29 stars out of a possible 35 sounds like a Final Four Team!