I haven’t seen Illinois play this year, and don’t really know much about them (other than what’s on their website), but I wanted to offer my two-cents about Illinois because tonight’s match at Champaign (7:00, BTN+) shapes up as critical to the Gophers post-season chances. Why? Despite our mediocre record, 11-7 Big 10, 18-10 overall, we continue to cling to # 16 in the AVCA (coaches) poll, and a pair of wins to finish the season at 20-10 would seemingly guarantee no worse than #16. Which, coupled with a pair of” signature wins” (Texas & Wisconsin) could earn the Gophs a Top-16 seed, which generally means hosting the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. (Our RPI, however, is 28, and we’re the only Top-25 team with double-digit losses, so no guarantee we’d get a Top-16 seed, even at 20-10.) Our chances disappear entirely with a loss to Illinois or Ohio State on Friday.
At least on paper, tonight’s match at Champaign looks the tougher of our final two matches. The Illini are not rated in the Top-32 in the AVCA, and they don’t have what I would call a signature win, but their record, 10-8 Big 10, 18-10 overall, is very similar to ours. Plus a quick glance at their stats suggests similar strengths and weaknesses.
- # 12, senior Leftside Hitter Raina Terry’s stats are very similar to Julie Hanson’s;
- Outside Hitters # 8 Hernandez and # 23 Smith’s combined stats are very similar to those of Wooker and Grote; and
- One of their Middles, #16 Philpot has better offensive stats than either Awoleye or Minatee, but neither have the blocks that Awoleye has.
Assuming the Gophers are relatively healthy, I am moderately optimistic – but I’d be happy with a 5-set win.